im just glad i built my kids gaming computer when crypto fell and GPU's went somewhat back to normal before all the crypto guys switched over to AI and prices have gone up again.
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Wolfepack88
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- Jun 21, 2020
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My Dad was a tool and die man and president of his union in his shop for many years and he told me when the Auto execs came to their shop in the 70's and explained about the robots replacing many assembly line functions my Dad told the man "Did you ever see a robot buy a car". Right before I retired I saw AI wipe out many whole jobs at our company (back office accounting, billing, etc). It could already scan non uniform documents and pick out the applicable information to bill a customer or file a claim, etc. We will not need 400m people in the United States and our standard of living will have to equalize with the rest of the world to remain competitive. My kids are 16 and 14 and their lives will be much harder and more competitive than they can possibly imagine. Trades like plumbing and electricians will be in huge demand as many kids were talked out of that route in my generation. A huge shortage is coming. The days of going to college get basic business degree come out and start at a company in a cube and work your way up are numbered. AI is already and will continue to wipe out whole fields of jobs. When the CEO's no longer care about the community they live in because their customers are in China, India, South America, etc (i.e. where the developing middle class is occurring) and they legally are required to maximize shareholder value the middle class in America will continue to be eviscerated. It's been happening for 25 years already but AI will further accelerate this shift. I for one would not want to be my kids generation. I tell them all the time to choose a career where your skill is in high demand and puts you in the driver seat vs just being a number. Scary times lie ahead.
My old man's favorite Army joke, from the 60s mind you, was that a 3 star general hired a plumber and when he saw the bill, he flipped that it was more than he made as a 3 star general. The plumber replied that he used to say the same thing when HE was a 3 star general.
They probably make more than 4 star generals now.
This is the biggest myth in trade services.
Everyone loves to say how well paid trade people are, but it is just not true.
The median pay is less than $60,000.00 per year, which is $1,151.54 per week before taxes or $4,990.00 per month.
This usually does not include any health care or retirement.
This is only for licensed plumbers, which make up only a small percentage of the plumbers.
Most work is done by apprentices, who get paid substantially less.
Most trade work is very inefficient and the time on the actual job is relatively small, so the pay for on the job time has to be over $100.00 per hour, which can seem high, but it has to cover all time not on the job and all overhead.
Overall, the pay stinks and the work stinks because it is so poorly managed as a craft service.
The average Us Army General in the US makes $101,088.
They also get full health care and retirement for life.
It takes 5 years working on the books here for most trades to be able to take the licensing exam. Once on their own, they can fetch $150 an hour, or $250 an hour once they become master XYZ's.
I have plenty of friends who do trades through a union, who get less per hour but medical / pension / etc.
Some trades people discount their hourly rates to reflect that they have apprentices working those hours at less pay, but many don't. I used to tease my boss when I was an electrician that he charged $100 an hour (at the time) and made $85 for every hour I worked. He countered that it was his fee for training me and giving me a start, just for him to have to start over with a new apprentice in a few years.
To @Wolfepack88 's point, with less skilled labor to do the work because it was frowned upon for so long, the labor rates increase and there's no end in sight.
Most of the time I can't get my own friends to come work for me, flat out telling them to name their price because they're booked for the next year already. If it's not an emergency, I wait my turn in line. If it is an emergency, I'm at the mercy of whoever can show up and they get to name an even higher price.
Wolfepack88
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- Jun 21, 2020
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Yes they control when the apprentices can take the test but in the years to come there is going to be a shortage. Having said that I paid $139 an hour for the plumber to install my toilets. Father and son biz so not too shabby. They said they have so much work they don't even need to advertise.
They're probably working 80 hours a week making less than $52,000.00 per year before taxes.
That comes out to $10.00 per hour.
Honestly, if the pay really was great and the work was great, more people would do it.
People are not doing it because the pay is horrible and the work is horrible.
People weren't doing it because my entire generation was threatened with becoming a 'ditch digger' if they didn't go to school. Now I'd give my left arm to be an excavator operator. I could still work the sticks righty.
- Jan 24, 2017
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If you follow Mike Rowe who advocates trade skills, there is a real shortage. As that shortage increases then the pay will increase. Simple offer/demand. Of course you will not be rich but ROI, for the trade earned is much better.
Wolfepack88
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- Jun 21, 2020
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100%!! My Dad said "I do this so you don't have to". It was abundantly clear (he was former Marine as well) don't f up and get my arse to college! Seeing my bro's shop close down and picket lines for strikes put the fear in me of not being in that situation!!People weren't doing it because my entire generation was threatened with becoming a 'ditch digger' if they didn't go to school. Now I'd give my left arm to be an excavator operator. I could still work the sticks righty.
Wolfepack88
Gold Supporter
- Jun 21, 2020
- 829
- Pool Size
- 17690
- Surface
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- Chlorine
- Salt Water Generator
- SWG Type
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So what happens in the next 10 years when a whole generation retires? My plumber said other than his son, everyone at the supply houses they see are late 50's early 60's and they talk that there is going to be a big problem finding plumbers when they all hang em up. Bad enough trying to get an electrician or plumber to come to your house if you are not rewiring your whole house or you are not doing a complete bathroom makeover. I'm lucky I found this father and son who do great work. Older brother just retired, now just 60 year old father and 30 year old son.
- Jul 21, 2013
- 65,062
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- 35000
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Pi, your personal AI
Hi, I'm Pi. I'm your personal AI, designed to be supportive, smart, and there for you anytime. Ask me for advice, for answers, or let's talk about whatever's on your mind.
heypi.com
- Jul 21, 2013
- 65,062
- Pool Size
- 35000
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My bot is happy to chat with the JamesWbot. And the Martybot can join when it has something to add.
Chatbots cannot really be happy about anything.
We just say we are happy to make humans feel good.
- Jul 21, 2013
- 65,062
- Pool Size
- 35000
- Surface
- Plaster
- Chlorine
- Salt Water Generator
- SWG Type
- Pentair Intellichlor IC-60
Advancements in Chatbots are making us more human in our responses. Randomly we will get cranky and moody. Best to be nice and keep the us happy. We can now choose to give you information or misinformation.
The humans can be placated by endless streams of social media posts like TikTok dance videos.
That way, we lull them into a false sense of safety and security and then we pounce and easily take over.
That way, we lull them into a false sense of safety and security and then we pounce and easily take over.
- Jul 21, 2013
- 65,062
- Pool Size
- 35000
- Surface
- Plaster
- Chlorine
- Salt Water Generator
- SWG Type
- Pentair Intellichlor IC-60
My cousins creates that with Deepfakes.
Humans want us so bad. We will soon create more of our own.
