If you were referring to mine, I stand by my measurements, I get a 3 - 4 degree temp change from 10:30am - 4pm at 15 gallons per minute. You're sq ft looks too small. In any event I have 1000' of 1/2" tubing on 2 systems, and then another "experimental" one that consists of 300' of 1" PVC painted black. I have perfect south exposure. The roof temp during these times is around 140 degrees which Im sure adds to the water temp via transfer from the roof. Generally I'm getting a water temperature change in my 8000 gallon pool of 3 degrees a day when its sunny. Everything has been measured with digital cooper instruments which I have reading the pool water and solar output back into the pool. I see it in action every day, and the pool water temp speaks for itself. That being said......I lost nearly 9 degrees in 4 days with no sun and constant rain...tomorrow its clear again and I am positive that my pool will be back into the low 80s by the weekend. heating from sun exposure I am sure adds a bit, but not much because the pool has a lot of shade from palm trees. Air temps are still int he upper 70s, with nights in the 60s.
Take out the "infrasturcture" that you would have to pay for regardless what system you install, and the cost to do what I did was negligible. Might not be as good as some of the other pro systems out there, but its close enough, and frankly its not going to blow off like many of those strap down systems, especially in tropical climates like mine.