When I had the manometer connected to the valve before opening the supply, it did spike up to around 50 wc" when I opened the supply and slowly bled down as before. Before I fired the heater, the plumber suggested to disconnect the manometer tube from the gas valve nipple briefly, re-zero the manometer, then reconnect it. After doing that, the pressure read just above 10" wc. I think the root problem is that the old regulator was just too slow to react to the pressure change when the gas valve opened. For whatever reason, the problem was worse when conditions were damp.