I was guessing you were going to use about 20 gallons a month in propane. That was based on about 3 days a week of usage. 20x4.60= 92.00 a month in propane.
For that much money in propane per month a heat pump can keep you pool warm (around 85) and heat your spa when you want to use it for the same 92 a month or less.
That's definitely worth considering. I'll have to run the numbers, but it seems much more expensive up front, and how quickly will it get the spa temperature up to 100? Also, I don't think it'll take 20 gallons from what I've seen. It looks like it should take about 1/2 gallon to raise the 200 gallon spa from 80 to 100, and I assume it wouldn't take much more than another 1/2 gallon just to maintain the temperature for a couple hours. That would knock the consumption down closer to 13 gallons per month. Also the $4.60 is the highest price quoted to me. They said it ranges from $2 to $4.60 or so.
The reasons I'm considering the gas if the small electric one doesn't work out are: lower up front purchase price, presumably lower installation fees since there's already a propane heater hooked up to all the necessary pipes (we may even be able to install it ourselves), and much more power / quicker heating. Also, buying used seems both easier and safer (less likely to have an expensive part needing repair quickly) with the gas? I'm really not sure about that statement but it seems to be the case right now.
From my admittedly rough/poor calculations using
Spa Heater Sizing Calculator | Jandy Pro Series I estimate using 1 gallon of propane per spa session (.5 gallon to get up to temp and another .5 gallon to maintain the temp for 1-2 hours). Even for purchases in the high season @ $4.60 / gallon that comes to about $62 / month. During the low season @ $2.50 / gallon that's more like $35 / month. Additionally, the 350k BTU should only take about 5 minutes to get the water from 80 to 100. Of course, as a negative it also requires an unsightly and potentially dangerous propane tank.
If I have to go new, from what I see, it would look something like:
(sorry for all the junk below, I'm actually figuring this out as I write this post

)
Propane
$1850 for 350k BTU heater
$500 for propane installation (including 1 fill)
I'll need to fill about twice per year, so that's another $40 / year ($20 for year 1), and the tank lease after year 1 is $96
Code:
Up front purchase / installation cost: $2350
Year 1 operating cost at max rate (remember one full tank is included) ~= 70 gal * $4.60 + $20 = $342
at min rate ~= 70 gal * $2.50 + $20 = $195
average rate ~= 70 gal * $3.55 + $20 = $269
Year 2+ operating cost at max rate = 156 gal * $4.60 + $40 + $96 = $854
at min rate ~= 156 gal * $2.50 + $40 + $96 = $526
average rate ~= 156 gal * $3.55 + $40 + $96 = $690 (~$58 / mo)
So, over 5 years I should be looking at about $2350 + $269 + 4 * $690 = $5379 or about $90 per month after which includes purchase and installation
Alternatively, I could purchase a tank for about $700, which would save me the tank rental fee, about $1 / gallon on price, and also let me shop around for other propane distributors. That would give:
Code:
Up front purchase / installation cost: $3050 (assuming installation costs remain the same using my own tank)
Year 1 operating cost at average rate ~= 70 gal * $2.55 + $20 ~= $200
Year 2+ operating cost at average rate ~= 156 gal * $2.55 + $40 ~= $438
So, over 5 years I'd be looking at about $3050 + $200 + 4 * $438 = $5002 or about $83 / mo including purchase and installation
Heat Pump
$3150 for 140k BTU heater
$700 for installation? (websites claim $500 - $1000, I'm hoping my sub panel has enough juice and eases this considerably, but it may need a concrete pad and be substantially bigger than my current heater, requiring some replumbing to make room)
Ongoing expense is really just the electricity, which I'm having a difficult time estimating and/or finding any calculators online. This heat pump uses 7.5 kw, for which we pay $0.125 / kwh and has a COP of 5.75. If anyone can help out here, that would be great. In theory the 140k BTUs should raise the spa from 80 to 100 in about 20 minutes. Like above, I'm assuming it would take that again to maintain the temperature for 1-2 hours, so 40 min of run time per swim? Of course, I don't know if any of this is factoring in the in-ground heat dissipation issue.
Code:
Up front purchase / installation cost: $3850
Monthly heating cost maybe $10 for just the spa?
Heating cost using CJademic's estimate (for the whole pool): 12 * $90 = $1080
Heating cost using my bad estimate (for the spa only): 12 * $10 = $120
To compare apples to apples, if we do just the spa over 5 years I'd be looking at about $3850 + 4 * $120 = $4330 or about $72 / month
So you're right, if I do have to go new, the heat pump is looking like a better option assuming there's nothing that would cause an exceedingly expensive install. Unfortunately, both options pretty much blow our budget out of the water, so I don't know if either is doable

. At this point it really may depend on whether or not the smaller $500 spa heaters will work (the company to respond to my Angies List inquiries stated they don't do heater installs w/out a bigger build... I guess I'll have to waste an afternoon calling...) or if I can find something decent on CL. I've seen some OK looking 250k propanes for $800 or so and a reconditioned Gulfstream (never heard of them) 113k BTU heat pump for $1150 that supposedly comes with a 6 month warranty...