So - control board received... though an interesting thing happened.
My wife wanted to use the spa, so I turned the heater on (have not yet replaced the board). Ran for around an hour, then the heater gave the clunking noise again and died out, AGS light. I thought this was meaningful as I didn't think the clunking noise was still happening, but it is. I happened to be looking at the outside display panel when that happened.. water temp of the spa was around 102, and it didn't rise rapidly or anything during the clunking.
I cut power to the heater, waited a few minutes, then gave it power again. It fired up and ran for a few minutes, then tripped back off. Stupidly, I was in the house when that happened and I didn't hear if there was a noise, and I REALLY stupidly didn't flip it upside down to see if it was AGS before cutting power.
I cut power to the heater again and tried flipping it back within 10 seconds, but this time it did not fire - AFS light (not AGS). I cut power, waited 5 minutes or so, and powered it on again, and it fired up properly. It was pretty late by this time though, so I didn't see how long it would go.
So, a few (new?) learnings:
1) When heater fails, it still clunks (or bangs). It was more "bang, bang, bang" with about a half second between the bangs this time instead of in the video I posted that was a little more of a grinding noise. Failure light is AGS.
2) If I let the heater sit for a few minutes then apply power again, it fires up, but it will run for a much shorter period than before. Unfortunately, no confirmation as to if the failure light is AGS or if it bangs on failure.
3) Once it fails, if I cut power and then re-apply power within a few seconds, the heater refuses to fire with AFS (not AGS).
Given the above, I had a couple of thoughts that may or may not be correct, just kind of based on my having read a ton of posts here:
1) With the heater still banging, we're probably not looking at an electronic type failure, but rather a mechanical failure. That means we're probably not looking at a control board or Fenwal, since there's no real scenario where an electronic part can make the heater do that. Is that a fair assessment?
2) Since we're back to banging, the likely culprits are either that valve (maybe the spring is too weak? it looked intact) or that there's some sort of build-up inside the heating tube.
What do you think, guys? Am I thinking along the right lines, or should I still swap out the control board, just to see? I can return the board even if it has been opened (it hasn't yet) as long as it's still in pristine condition, but if the banging removes the control board as a failure option, then I'd just as soon return it unopened to save the seller some headaches.