I have a cell rated for 52,000 gallons for my 19,000 gallon pool, and I can run at a low power / %age. I am in the south and have direct sunlight on the pool for most of the day, so that is another reason I wanted it oversized, and to be able to boost to high levels when needed. The chlorine use will definitely increase as water temperature increases, depending upon the amount of direct sunlight you get, the level of the cyanuric acid, and bather load.
For you, the IC40 "should" be sufficient, but if you can afford it, I would definitely go with the IC60. My original installed SWG was undersized and I replaced within months.