I've got 466 square feet of solar pool water heating panel area, but not all are in the sun all the time (there's a tree that blocks two of them part of the year). If you want to have very warm water without needing any gas heat, then you'll definitely need a solar cover. We have an automatic electric safety cover that probably insulates half as well as a bubble-type cover. We keep our pool warm at 88ºF so really 86-87ºF in the morning to 89-90ºF by the end of the day.
This post shows that with this scenario I don't need any gas at all in July/August but need some outside that range.
Basically, because you want your pool water very warm at 90ºF you really need to use a pool cover with solar, especially for the extended season. Note that with solar you won't have the water temperature be constant all day and night -- it will be coldest in the morning and hottest in the late afternoon. So if you want to swim in warmer water in the morning then you'd need to target even hotter for the late afternoon so that the temperature will be retained overnight. With my thinner cover I lose around 2-3ºF overnight depending on night temperatures in the summer and I'd lose about twice that amount (4-6ºF) if I didn't use a cover at all. With a bubble-type cover, you can expect to lose half of what I lose so perhaps 1-1.5ºF overnight during peak summer months. If I were using a bubble-type cover, I'd likely not need any gas from June through September.
Note that my panels are facing south-south-west. Your north-facing panels are NOT going to do very well during most months. The latitude of San Jose, CA is 37.3º so even at the summer solstice (end of June) the sun at peak noon (closer to 1 PM with DST) will be at 37.3-23.4 = 13.9º towards the South from the vertical. A standard roof pitch (except in snow areas where the minimum is usually 6/12 or 26.6º) is 4/12 so that's 18.4º. So a southern roof is quite efficient. A northern-facing roof of this type would have an angle relative to the sun peak of 13.9+18.4 = 32.3 and only be 85% efficient. This will really show up a lot during the extended season. I compare a southern exposure to a northern one below (assuming 4/12 roof pitch in San Jose, CA) for each solstice and equinox:
Date .
Southern .
Northern
6/21 .... 99.7% ...... 84.5%
9/23 .... 94.6% ...... 56.4%
12/22 .. 74.0% ...... 18.9%
3/20 .... 94.6% ...... 56.4%
The bottom line is that it's not too hard to get to the 80-85ºF range in the Bay Area, but getting a pool consistently into the 88-90ºF range takes more effort meaning a combination of solar water heating panels and an insulating cover, most especially if one wants to extend the season. Also, as noted above, a northern exposure means you are only going to get decent solar heating in June/July but not nearly as good beyond that.